What is the reason for the stock market jump?
According to EqtasedOnline, Peyman Molavi, a capital market expert in Dunya Eqtased, wrote; Currently, some investors believe that, given the unfavorable conditions of the past year, now is a good time to buy shares of companies that have a favorable situation in terms of dividend distribution.
This group of shareholders considers it appropriate to earn reasonable profits from such companies at favorable prices at the current time, because they consider buying in the current conditions and using the money after holding company meetings to be a desirable event. The extent to which the significant influx of liquidity into the capital market during the first few days of this year can continue in the country's stock market transactions also depends on several factors.
It seems that the optimal policy for most investors is to continue to focus on a dividend strategy in the current situation, not necessarily an investment based on price appreciation, even considering the current growth of the Tehran Stock Exchange. Currently, the issue of money entering the stock market or part of it being injected into company stocks has become popular again.
According to the latest calculated figures, the interbank interest rate is fluctuating between 20 and 21 percent, so such a figure indicates that interest rates have not fallen much compared to the past, so current rates cannot be considered a factor for injecting money from banks into the productive sector of the economy. The issue of tax exemptions for investment funds has some impact on the market.
In the long term, this can lead to an increase in P/E and also affect the volume of money entering the market. However, regarding whether the rising trend in corporate stock prices can continue in the long term, it must be acknowledged that there is no such evidence and investors should trade more cautiously during daily stock market trading.
In general, in the current situation, we are not witnessing any specific event compared to the past month, although optimism can be mentioned as a driving force for the market, but real investors who enter with small capital should take risk management more seriously than those who enter the stock market institutionally.
Given the ups and downs of prices in global markets, the Tehran Stock Exchange and the Iranian OTC can still be considered a desirable option for investment, however, this event is not based on price increases (investment is not based on price increases on the board), but rather investment should be based on the dividend model.
It seems that this year the real interest rate is moving from minus 18% to more positive. Investors should adjust their expected returns based on inflation because the conditions will not be the same as in 1400.
In the political dimension, the failure to achieve an international treaty (JCPOA) could shock the economy and once again decisions will have to be made taking into account high inflation (inflation is considered at current levels and possibly higher), which, incidentally, will not lead to a desirable result.
If the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is signed by the negotiating parties, we may experience a decline in markets such as the dollar, gold and other parallel markets, although such events have been seen in these markets and they are now more prepared than in the past.
In the capital market, we will also witness an increase in stock indices after a time interval following the JCPOA. In my opinion, the growth of the index seems to be an unimportant issue, what is important is that companies active in the petrochemical, mining and mineral industries will achieve the profits they need to create in a desirable way.
Considering the state of global markets and the opportunity that is created for such companies following the agreement in the nuclear negotiations, this profit-making is not out of the question. A erosive achievement of the nuclear agreement can also lead to a recession in markets such as real estate, and a market such as the dollar will also continue its slow and steady upward movement.
In such circumstances, the capital market will also continue its upward path in line with such a market. There is no specific prediction regarding the stock market trend this year, but investors should direct their investment model in 1401 towards companies that had high profit margins (more than 40 percent) and a non-leveraged capital structure last year.
Companies that distribute dividends of more than 70%, especially in the petrochemical, mining and mineral industries, should be taken into account by shareholders.
The reality is that individuals and investors are not responsible for the productive sector of the country's economy. Investments in parallel markets are also made in order to make a profit, but to what extent this issue can be more important than last year or to what extent this year will be more promising than 1400, there are no statistics in this regard.
