According to EqtasOnline, citing online news, Peyman Molavi, examining three scenarios about the dollar price in 1403, says: When we talk about the dollar price, we must examine inflation scenarios.
He adds: According to the optimistic scenario of the Central Bank, liquidity growth will be about 25 percent and economic growth will be about 4 to 5 percent next year. Accordingly, inflation will be in the 30 to 35 percent channel.
This economist clarifies: According to these indicators, the dollar price can be balanced at 65,000 Tomans with 10 percent higher or lower.
Molavi notes: This scenario is optimistic, because growth above 4 percent requires much greater investment in the economy, while what is happening today is less.
He continues: Accordingly, the middle scenario is the continuation of the existing inflation or inflation between 35 and 40 percent. In this case, the dollar's equilibrium point will rise and will be close to 62,000 Tomans.
The economist says: Even in the pessimistic scenario, if liquidity grows and reaches its average of the last 5 years, that is, above 35 percent, unfortunately, inflation will move towards above 40 percent. Accordingly, the dollar's equilibrium point will shift again and rise.
Molavi states: What is important is the relationship between inflation and the dollar, and the main point in this relationship that can be mentioned is that in the short term, governments are always riding on the dollar rate, and in the medium and long term, it is inflation that takes the reins of the dollar and causes the dollar to increase in strength against the rial and the possible decline of the rial in the future.
