Peyman Molavi | economist                                 We are now at the peak of the dollar’s ​​power. The dollar should have fallen after the peace deal, reversing safe-haven flows and capital outflows from U.S. assets. Instead, the first Fed meeting under Warsh fundamentally changed market expectations and reinforced the notion …

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                Why Interest Rates Must Rise to Control Inflation Peyman Molavi | Economist | Wealth Manager Inflation occurs when the overall level of prices in an economy rises faster than the purchasing power of money. While moderate inflation can be a sign of economic growth, persistently high inflation erodes savings, reduces real incomes, and creates uncertainty for households and businesses. One of the …

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  Why does a sharp increase in interest rates take precedence over any other policy in countries with high inflation? Peyman Molavi Economist | Wealth Manager In economics, no variable can disrupt the basis of economic decision-making as much as inflation. When the inflation rate remains at high levels for a long time, it is not only a matter of increasing prices; the main function of money is also disrupted. …

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    Iran’s Economic Transition: From Limited Access Order to Open Access Order Iran’s economic challenges cannot be understood solely through inflation, sanctions, exchange rates, or oil revenues. At their core lies a deeper institutional issue: the country’s economy operates as a Limited Access Order (LAO) rather than an Open Access Order (OAO). In a Limited Access Order, economic and political opportunities are concentrated among a relatively small group of …

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  Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve may find itself in a difficult position by the end of 2026. A number of economists argue that inflationary pressures, intensified by the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s confrontation with Iran, could force the Fed to reverse course and raise interest rates sooner than markets currently expect. Higher energy prices, disruptions to global trade routes, and renewed geopolitical uncertainty have already increased inflation risks. If …

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  The G7’s Shrinking Share of the World — and Its Expanding Influence               Peyman Molavi | Economist  In 1980, the G7 economies accounted for 60.5% of global GDP while representing 13.8% of the world’s population. Today, those figures have fallen to 44.1% of global GDP and just 9.6% of the world’s population. At first glance, this appears to be a story of decline. …

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  Why Oil Is Still Below $100:  The 5 Forces Reshaping the Global Energy Market Peyman Molavi Economist Despite geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and repeated predictions of a major oil price spike, crude oil has remained below the psychologically important $100-per-barrel threshold. Many investors expected a return to the energy shocks of the 1970s or even the post-pandemic surge of 2022. Instead, the market has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Here are …

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  Have Markets Underestimated the Power of the Dollar? Peyman Molavi Economist | Wealth Manager In recent years, the dominant narrative in many financial markets has been that the U.S. dollar is on a path of structural weakness. The arguments are familiar: rising U.S. government debt, chronic budget deficits, rising public spending, and rising geopolitical rivals. But history shows that markets sometimes ignore the most important determinant of a currency’s …

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  AI’s Hidden Resource Shock: Why Data Centers Could Double Their Power and Water Consumption by 2030 The artificial intelligence revolution is often discussed in terms of computing power, productivity gains, and trillion-dollar market opportunities. Yet behind every AI model, chatbot, image generator, and autonomous system stands a rapidly expanding physical infrastructure whose resource demands are becoming impossible to ignore. According to recent estimates highlighted by United Nations researchers, global …

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                    Global Gas Crisis; Is the World’s Energy Map Being Redrawn? In global energy markets, a war, a sanction, or an industrial accident can sometimes reshape global trade routes for decades. Today, the natural gas market is at a point where the world’s three largest producers are simultaneously facing major disruptions—an event that could fundamentally transform global supply and demand structures. …

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