Energy Crisis 2026; The Beginning of the Age of Concentrated Risks

Energy Crisis 2026; The Beginning of the Age of Concentrated Risks

Payman Molavi | Economist and Wealth Manager

In the history of the global economy, there are moments that are not simply a “price shock” but a sign of a change in the architecture of the system; what is happening in the energy and commodity markets in the spring of 2026 is exactly that kind.

The simultaneous warning of three influential global institutions—the World Bank, the International Energy Agency, and S&P Global—is more than a news synchrony, it indicates the formation of an analytical consensus about the world economy entering a new phase of risk.

According to World Bank data, a 24% increase in energy prices, a 31% jump in chemical fertilizer prices, and a 60% growth in urea prices, along with a 16% increase in the general commodity index, do not simply indicate inflation; these numbers indicate a collapse of equilibrium in global supply chains. This is the point where “inflation” becomes “structural instability.”

In this context, Fatih Birol’s warning about the removal of 13 million barrels of oil per day is not a simple number; it means the removal of a “balancing pillar” from the global energy market. To understand the scale of this crisis, it is enough to know that this level of disruption not only exceeds the oil shocks of the 1970s, but also surpasses even the energy crisis after the Russia-Ukraine war.

On the other hand, Daniel Yergin’s analysis complements this fact: we are facing a “multi-market” crisis, not just an oil crisis. A chain of markets—from LNG to aluminum, from petrochemicals to agriculture—are simultaneously involved in a common disruption. This is what is called “crisis correlation” in the risk management literature.

But the focal point of this transformation is somewhere off the charts:

Geopolitics.

The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a transit route; This transition has become a “systemic breaking point.” In the new structure of the global economy, we no longer face diffuse and absorbable risks; we face risks that are concentrated in narrow bottlenecks and have the potential to cause chain disruptions throughout the entire system.

The rise in Brent oil prices to $120 and the consolidation of the $115 scenario for the 2026 average, even before reserves reach their operational bottom, sends a clear message:

The market is no longer priced based on classic supply and demand, but the “geopolitical risk premium” has become the dominant component.

Meanwhile, Asia—as the largest energy consumer in the Persian Gulf—is at the forefront of this pressure. This could lead to a realignment of trade flows, a reorientation of investment, and even a redefinition of economic alliances.

But perhaps most importantly, the dual nature of this crisis.

Controlling or disrupting such bottlenecks can be a powerful geopolitical lever; but the same tool, due to the deep interdependence of the global economy, can quickly become a catalyst for the formation of international coalitions and increasing political and economic costs.

To put it simply:

We are faced with a “double-edged sword”.

In the hands of a smart actor, this tool can change the balance of power; but in the case of miscalculation, it can lead to accelerated geopolitical isolation and even the destruction of economic interests.

✔️Summary for economic decision-makers

What is happening today is not a temporary cycle; Rather, it is the beginning of a new paradigm in the global economy:

• A shift from “stable markets with volatility” to “unstable markets with shocks”

• An increasing role for geopolitics in asset pricing

• And, most importantly, the transformation of regional risks into global systematic risks

For investors and wealth managers, this shift carries a stark warning:

Traditional diversification models are no longer enough.

In a world where bottlenecks are decisive, wealth management is effectively incomplete without a deep understanding of geopolitics.