Energy Crisis 2026; The Beginning of the Age of Concentrated Risks   Payman Molavi | Economist and Wealth Manager   In the history of the global economy, there are moments that are not simply a “price shock” but a sign of a change in the architecture of the system; what is happening in the energy and commodity markets in the spring of 2026 is exactly that kind.   The …

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  Ethereum at a standstill, Bitcoin on the path to dominance; a reading of the difference in natures   Payman Molavi | Wealth Manager   The fact that Ethereum’s price is still fluctuating around its previous levels after a few years, while Bitcoin has conquered new price paths, is not a random anomaly in the market; it is a reflection of the profound difference in the “economic identity” of the …

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  Hormuz Strait Disruption and the Fertilizer Market: A Strategic Summary Author: Peyman Molavi | Senior Economist ⸻ The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents far more than a temporary geopolitical shock—it is a systemic risk to the global economy, with one of its most critical and underappreciated impacts emerging in the fertilizer market. At the heart of the issue lies extreme supply concentration. A significant share of …

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  The Vicious Cycle of Unemployment, Negative Growth, and Rising Inflation in the Iranian Economy   Peeman Molavi   Today, the Iranian economy is involved in a vicious and self-reinforcing cycle; a cycle from which unemployment, negative economic growth, and rising inflation are reproduced simultaneously and not separately, but intertwined and synergistically. Understanding this cycle is an inevitable necessity not only for analyzing the current situation, but also for designing …

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  Global Commodity Market and Hormuz!   Peyman Molavi | Wealth Manager   From a wealth manager’s perspective, what is observed in the behavior of the CRB Index following geopolitical tensions and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is not simply an emotional market reaction to a temporary shock, but rather a profound sign of a shift in the “risk pricing regime” in the global economy; This means that markets …

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                  Capital markets price the future, not the past   China’s economy is on the surface catching up with the United States, but what is visible in the deeper layers tells a completely different story; one that is more about “quality” and “sustainability” than “size.”   In terms of gross domestic product (GDP), China had reached about three-quarters of the US economy …

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  Iran’s Missed Economic Trajectory: The Cost of Interrupted Growth   By Peyman Molavi | Founder of Molavicapital Institute | Molavi Economic Research Center |   Economic history is not only about what happened, but also about what could have happened. In the case of Iran, the cost of interrupted development paths is far larger than most discussions acknowledge. Based on my calculations, if Iran had maintained a moderate continuation …

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    What are the reasons for the recent fluctuations in the country's foreign exchange market? This question is important in a situation where the exchange rate has reached 94,000 tomans in mid-August from 85,000 tomans in early August. The importance of these fluctuations becomes more prominent when we know that the exchange rate did not experience such rapid growth during the 12-day war and was in a stable range. …

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                    According to EqtasOnline, citing online news, Peyman Molavi, examining three scenarios about the dollar price in 1403, says: When we talk about the dollar price, we must examine inflation scenarios.   He adds: According to the optimistic scenario of the Central Bank, liquidity growth will be about 25 percent and economic growth will be about 4 to 5 percent next …

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                    Economist Peyman Molavi, explaining the main factors behind the increase in the dollar price, stated: The main factor behind the increase in the dollar rate is inflation, which is caused by monetary policies. Inflation this year is estimated at around 32 percent, while the effects of Trump's shock have not yet begun and the trigger mechanism has not been activated. …

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