Geopolitical Risk Soars to the Highest Level in at Least 65 Years   Peyman Molavi   Geopolitical risk has surged to its highest level in at least the last 65 years, marking a profound shift in the global economic and investment landscape. Rising tensions across multiple regions, intensifying strategic competition between major powers, expanding trade restrictions, and increasing military conflicts have combined to create an environment of exceptional uncertainty. …

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The Economy: A Decisive Test Economist Peyman Molavi argues that Iran’s greatest economic challenge at the beginning of its new phase is not inflation or the exchange rate alone, but rather a crisis of economic confidence. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Molavi said that investment—whether domestic or foreign—only takes place when investors can reasonably predict the future. In his view, Iran’s economy faces four major structural challenges: persistent inflation, …

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The Strait of Hormuz: Why Iran Is Fighting to Preserve EconomicLeverage   Recent incidents involving commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz should not be viewed solely through a military lens. They represent a broader strategy aimed at preserving one of Iran’s most valuable geopolitical and economic assets: influence over the world’s most critical energy corridor. Nearly one-fifth of global oil consumption and a significant share of liquefied natural gas …

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              Peyman Molavi | economist                                 We are now at the peak of the dollar’s ​​power. The dollar should have fallen after the peace deal, reversing safe-haven flows and capital outflows from U.S. assets. Instead, the first Fed meeting under Warsh fundamentally changed market expectations and reinforced the notion …

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                Why Interest Rates Must Rise to Control Inflation Peyman Molavi | Economist | Wealth Manager Inflation occurs when the overall level of prices in an economy rises faster than the purchasing power of money. While moderate inflation can be a sign of economic growth, persistently high inflation erodes savings, reduces real incomes, and creates uncertainty for households and businesses. One of the …

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  Why does a sharp increase in interest rates take precedence over any other policy in countries with high inflation? Peyman Molavi Economist | Wealth Manager In economics, no variable can disrupt the basis of economic decision-making as much as inflation. When the inflation rate remains at high levels for a long time, it is not only a matter of increasing prices; the main function of money is also disrupted. …

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    Iran’s Economic Transition: From Limited Access Order to Open Access Order Iran’s economic challenges cannot be understood solely through inflation, sanctions, exchange rates, or oil revenues. At their core lies a deeper institutional issue: the country’s economy operates as a Limited Access Order (LAO) rather than an Open Access Order (OAO). In a Limited Access Order, economic and political opportunities are concentrated among a relatively small group of …

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  Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve may find itself in a difficult position by the end of 2026. A number of economists argue that inflationary pressures, intensified by the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s confrontation with Iran, could force the Fed to reverse course and raise interest rates sooner than markets currently expect. Higher energy prices, disruptions to global trade routes, and renewed geopolitical uncertainty have already increased inflation risks. If …

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  The G7’s Shrinking Share of the World — and Its Expanding Influence               Peyman Molavi | Economist  In 1980, the G7 economies accounted for 60.5% of global GDP while representing 13.8% of the world’s population. Today, those figures have fallen to 44.1% of global GDP and just 9.6% of the world’s population. At first glance, this appears to be a story of decline. …

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  Why Oil Is Still Below $100:  The 5 Forces Reshaping the Global Energy Market Peyman Molavi Economist Despite geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and repeated predictions of a major oil price spike, crude oil has remained below the psychologically important $100-per-barrel threshold. Many investors expected a return to the energy shocks of the 1970s or even the post-pandemic surge of 2022. Instead, the market has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Here are …

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